The Third Gulf War: America’s Strategic Overreach and the Rise of a New Order

Aleena Im

The US–Israel war against Iran is accelerating the decline of American global dominance, exposing strategic overreach and weakening its alliances. As the conflict reshapes energy flows and security dynamics, Russia and China are capitalising on the chaos to accelerate a shift toward a multipolar world order.

 

Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The current geopolitical situation exactly fits into this paradigm. As the world order heads towards multipolarity, the international system is witnessing a sort of anarchy, which became even more prominent when US President Donald Trump assumed his office in January 2025.

The Trump 2.0 administration is pursuing a ‘conservative internationalist’ foreign policy approach that contends that the US will now opt for personal interests – even at the cost of its allies. No matter who gets thrown under the bus, the so-called American national interest would be preferred under a zero-sum approach. From Venezuela to Greenland and now Iran, the US is acting like a bull in a China shop.

The ongoing Third Gulf War has the potential to decide – or at least set the foundational principles of power transition from the West to the East 

After illegally abducting Nicolás Maduro of  Venezuela – a move that was labelled as insanity by the masses – the confidence of the Trump administration was boosted in the sense that they could repeat this event anywhere in the world, i.e., change the leadership of a country with no questions asked: that’s what they did in Iran. People were surprised at the lack of a reaction by Russia when Maduro was captured. However, Russia was likely just waiting for Trump to make his next blunder, which could potentially become self-destructive for the US.

Lo and behold, the US-Israel joint military operation against Iran has set fire to the Middle East, becoming a strategic battle point that might actually cement the shifting of the world order from the West to the East.

Third Gulf War 

On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched joint operations, named ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and ‘Operation Roaring Lion,’ respectively, against Iran. As a result of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been martyred, along with top IRGC leadership. However, the war is still very much ongoing, as the Iranian regime under its “Mosaic” doctrine is inflicting heavy blows on Israel and the US military infrastructure in the Middle East. Iran has deliberately closed the Strait of Hormuz, which controls approximately 20% of the world’s energy shipments, allowing only like-minded nations and allies (including Russia and China) to transit through it.

In retaliation for US aggression, Iran is conducting missile strikes on the American military bases in the Gulf states, which has altered the entire war landscape. The war in the Middle East is no longer regionally constrained; rather, the whole world is under great economic shock. The end of this war, in one way or another, would decide the future of the upcoming world order. But one thing is pretty clear: the US grip over the international arena is now loosening at a much greater pace as the war in the Middle East rages on.

Russian Opportunism at its Peak 

“Wars do not determine who is right – only who is left” (Bertrand Russell).

To pressure Russia and to end the Ukraine conflict on Trump’s terms, the Trump 2.0 administration started encircling the Russian Federation economically and politically. By imposing worldwide tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, in particular India, President Trump was trying to compel Russia to retreat. Likewise, exploiting the opportunity, President Trump concluded a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus – an area long dominated by the Russian Federation. Moreover, the US established a Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) in the region. Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, who was closely allied with Moscow, was removed through external intervention and replaced by a puppet of the US. The abduction of Venezuelan President Maduro was also done on the pretext that Russia is probably not in a condition to militarily intervene there. But the war against Iran has reversed the entire US strategy in just a few days.

Russia’s strategic approach towards the Iran war is centred around three major objectives: to support the current Iranian regime, which is an ally of Moscow – especially because of Western brutality globally; to inflict economic blows on the US; and to further compel the Ukrainians to retreat and end the war on Russia’s terms. As for the first objective, even after the killing of the former supreme leader of Iran, the administration is intact, which means Russian support for Iran is ongoing. Second, as Iran is destroying key military facilities of the US in the Gulf states using cheap drones and missiles, this war is becoming too costly for the US. Third, as the US has shifted its defence deployments to the Middle East, Ukraine has been left alone, which provides significant breathing space to Russia.

Likewise, Trump’s strategy of pressuring Russia through cutting off its energy supplies to the world has turned out to be a failure. As Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, Russian oil is now the best alternative for Asia-Pacific nations. To control the ongoing surges in oil prices, the Trump administration has given a thirty-day waiver to India for buying Russian oil — a clear retreat from its tariff policy. Last week, the price of Russian oil that is used for taxation reached 6,105 roubles per barrel, which is 82% higher than the price on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel began their military assault against Iran.

Moreover, Moscow can supply its arms to Iran to fulfill Tehran’s ammunition shortage, which will further strengthen the Russian economy. Behind economic opportunities, the Middle Eastern states, in particular the Arab world, have sensed the US’s unreliability and are diversifying their partnerships, which means the degradation of US influence in the region. Moreover, Russia can be a suitable (more stable) alternative for the Gulf States. Additionally, Russia has also offered to mediate the ongoing Gulf War, which reinforces Russia’s diplomatic prominence in the region. This sense of strategic autonomy or diversification has also made serious dents in the tacit political build-ups of the US in the region, in particular TRIPP in the South Caucasus.

Shifts in Global Power 

“It is important to ask ourselves, as citizens, whether a world power can provide global leadership on the basis of fear and anxiety.” (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

According to Power Transition theorists, wars ultimately decide the actual pattern of power transition from one side to the other. History is witness: After every major war, new realities have emerged in the international system. Whether it is the bipolar order after WWII or the unipolar moment in the post-Cold War era, wars have reshaped the global balance of power. The ongoing Third Gulf War has the potential to decide – or at least set the foundational principles of power transition from the West to the East. The current geopolitical order is marked by the rise of middle powers, and the Middle East is no exception. Gulf monarchies are now diversifying their defence partnerships, apart from the ones they have with the US. The US war against Iran has made them realise that American bases on their territories no longer serve the function of their security and defiance, and will not serve as a deterrent for foes of the US. Resultantly, both Russia and China now seem to be the best alternatives for Gulf states.

Conclusion

The war against Iran has turned out to be a complete failure for the US. Iran is not like Venezuela or Greenland. It has spent decades learning to survive and thrive under intense economic pressure from the West. The Iranian regime has created a domestic hierarchical order whereby, in the case of the absence of top leadership, its Armed Forces can still act firmly and according to their plans. Although a long-term war in Iran is not directly aligned with Russian interests, it provides imminent opportunities to be exploited and to make the West realise the mistake they have made. Both Russia and China are now gaining influence in the region and have emerged as the ‘Champions of the New World Order.’

https://journal-neo.su/2026/03/18/the-third-gulf-war-americas-strategic-overreach-and-the-rise-of-a-new-order/

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

• There is "extensive damage" from missile attacks on the Ras Laffan industrial site, Qatar's state-owned petroleum company says

• Ras Laffan was among the sites listed by Iran in a warning that it would take "decisive action" after its South Pars gas field facilities were reportedly hit by Israeli strikes

• Iran's South Pars is part of the world's largest natural gas field, with both Qatar and Iran operating facilities in the area - Israel is yet to comment

• Meanwhile, Iran's Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib has been killed in an overnight strike, the country's president confirms - read more about him

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

 

 

         Gus Leonisky

 

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

The Oscar-winning documentary ‘Mr. Nobody Against Putin’, about day-to-day life inside a Russian school, violated privacy laws concerning minors, Russian human rights officials said on Wednesday.

The Russian Human Rights Council, a presidential advisory body, said parents alleged that Pavel Talankin, a former videographer at a school in the small town of Karabash in Russia’s Ural Mountains, and US filmmaker David Borenstein included footage of children in their film without consent.

Talankin filmed various extracurricular activities as part of his job and took the video archive with him when he left Russia in 2024. The film he made with Borenstein using the footage won an Academy Award on Sunday.

Russian officials alleged that the documentary violated the 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child, which protects children from “arbitrary or unlawful interference with his or her privacy.”

The council said it filed a complaint with the US Motion Picture Academy and UNESCO, arguing that the film “violated international standards for the protection of children’s rights and commonly held ethical principles regarding the handling of materials depicting minors.”

The film premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival to widespread acclaim, winning several awards, including a BAFTA.

https://www.rt.com/pop-culture/635480-russian-complaint-oscar-documentary/

 

Talankin is a thief. The footage did not belong to him.... AND OF COURSE WE ALL (ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN IN TV OR IN MEDIA) KNOW THAT WITH EDITING WE CAN MAKE AND SUGGEST ANYTHING WE LIKE... THIS IS WHY TRUMP IS SUING THE BBC...

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

YES.... MORE PROPAGANDA TO HATE PUTIN SOME MORE.... READ FROM TOP...

 

On the first day of April in 2022, shocking videos began circulating on Ukrainian social media, showing the streets of Bucha, a town in Kiev region, strewn with dead bodies.  The “Bucha massacre” quickly became one of the most widely discussed and controversial chapters of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Western media immediately accused the Russian army of mass killings, while Vladimir Zelensky declared that these acts were not only war crimes but a genocide against his country's people.

 

By Petr Lavrenin

 

However, a closer look at the situation raises numerous questions. An analysis of video footage, satellite images, and eyewitness accounts reveals significant inconsistencies that cast doubt on the official narrative adopted by Kiev and its Western allies. This article explores why it appears the so-called “Bucha massacre” has been fabricated.

What do we know

Bucha, with a population of 40,000 people, found itself on the front lines from the first days of the Ukraine conflict. To the north of Bucha lies the village of Gostomel, home to the strategically important Antonov Airport, where Russian paratroopers landed on the morning of February 24, 2022. This group soon joined the main Russian units advancing from Belarus.

In the days that followed, fierce battles broke out around Bucha as Russian troops attempted to establish a foothold in the town and push toward Irpin, a large suburb of Kiev. Nevertheless, the area remained under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and territorial defense units.

Between March 3 and 5, Russian forces entered Bucha from the side of the village of Vorzel, setting up a base at a glass factory and along the southern outskirts of the city. From then on, Bucha became a transit point and rear base for Russian troops engaged in combat near Kiev.

On March 29, following a round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin announced a significant reduction in military activity around Kiev and Chernigov.

By March 30, Russian forces began withdrawing from Kiev Region due to the shifting priorities of the military operation.

However, just days after their retreat, shocking footage emerged that stunned the whole world.

When Ukrainian soldiers entered Bucha, international media outlets began publishing photo and video evidence of murdered civilians. Vladimir Zelensky and his team quickly accused Russian troops of committing mass murder, labeling it an act of genocide.

“This is genocide. The annihilation of an entire nation and people,” Zelensky declared on CBS’s Face the Nation. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba called on the G7 countries to impose immediate “new devastating sanctions”against Russia, including imposing a complete embargo on Russian oil, gas, and coal, closing ports to Russian vessels, and disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT system.

The Russian Foreign Ministry denied any involvement in civilian deaths. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that the images showed “signs of forgery” and manipulation.

From the beginning, the narrative surrounding the “Bucha massacre” was full of inconsistencies and peculiarities, many of which remain unclear to this day. 

Timing discrepancies

Among the key arguments that cast doubt on the Ukrainian narrative of mass killings in Bucha are the timing discrepancies.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has consistently stated that all Russian units had left Bucha by March 30, 2022.  This claim is supported by local authorities. On March 31, Bucha Mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk recorded a video message confirming the withdrawal of Russian forces but did not mention any mass killings or bodies. In the background of the video, the streets appear clear, and there are no signs of corpses or destruction. At the same time, Ukrainian MPs and military personnel were in Bucha, yet none of them reported seeing dead bodies. Local residents did not mention any mass shootings either.

The first images of the bodies emerged only on April 1-2, a couple of days after Ukrainian military personnel and activists entered the city. This raises questions about the timing and circumstances surrounding their deaths: if Russian troops left Bucha on March 30, how could evidence of the killings have come to light only several days later?

Analysis of video footage from the scene further shows that many bodies appear too “fresh” to have been lying there for over a week. Forensic experts point out that signs of decomposition should have manifested much earlier if the deaths truly occurred in mid-March. Photos and videos provided by Ukrainian and Western media show signs (such as drying skin in certain areas) that suggest death likely took place just hours or a day before the images were captured.

Controversial satellite images and social media data 

On April 1, 2022, Maxar Technologies released satellite images dated March 19, allegedly showing bodies on Yablonskaya Street in Bucha. These images were cited by Ukrainian and Western media as key evidence of mass killings supposedly carried out by Russian forces.

However, these images are highly questionable. Independent researchers have noted that the images may have been manipulated or backdated.

Firstly, the March images from Maxar, published by The New York Times, are of very low quality compared to the February photos. This complicates analysis and raises suspicions of manipulation. The objects depicted in the images cannot be unequivocally identified as bodies, so claims about corpses that have been there for a long time rely solely on Western media reports and have not been independently verified. The images could have been altered or backdated to suggest that the bodies had been on the streets since March.

Secondly, the weather conditions captured in the videos do not match the meteorological data for the dates specified in Western media reports. This discrepancy indicates a possible mismatch in the timing of the recordings.

Thirdly, Maxar Technologies has close ties to US government structures, raising concerns about a potential bias and the use of its data for propaganda purposes.

Alexey Tokarev, who has a PhD in political science, and his team from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations conducted an analysis of media coverage, social media, and Telegram channels related to Bucha, and uncovered an intriguing pattern: there were no mentions of bodies on Yablonskaya Street prior to April 1. While there were reports of destruction, prisoners, and fighting, there was no information regarding mass killings.

“If we are to believe the Western media, the town has been full of corpses since April 1, and according to a leading American newspaper, even earlier – since March 11. So why is it that in a video captured by the Ukrainian police on April 2, which features 14 civilians, no one mentions any bodies or mass executions? The nearly eight-minute-long video shows nine different locations in the small town, but we don’t see a single corpse,” Tokarev says.

Discrepancies in visual evidence

The videos and photographs released by the Ukrainian side reveal numerous inconsistencies that suggest a possible staging. For instance, in one case, we see Ukrainian soldiers moving bodies between takes, while in another video, a “corpse’s” hand noticeably twitches. These signs indicate that the individuals depicted were not actually dead.

The Investigative Committee of Russia reported that the bodies did not display signs of having been outside for an extended period – there were no corpse marks and uncoagulated blood in wounds – casting doubt on the official Ukrainian narrative. Experts also noted the absence of shrapnel or explosive damage near the bodies, further contradicting claims of mass shootings.

Additionally, many victims, judging by photos, wore white armbands – a symbol typically associated with pro-Russian civilians. This suggests that Ukrainian forces might have targeted individuals suspected of “collaboration”, i.e., cooperating with Russian troops, and then accused the other side of the murders.

Moreover, in the initial days following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Bucha, a curfew was imposed, restricting locals from venturing into the streets. This created suitable conditions for the potential fabrication of events.

Eyewitness accounts and questionable sources

Adrien Bocquet, a French volunteer and journalist who was in Kiev Region during intense fighting, claimed that he personally witnessed Ukrainian forces staging mass killings in Bucha.

He recounted seeing bodies being brought into the city and arranged on the streets to create the impression of “mass deaths”. “When we drove into Bucha, I was in the passenger seat. As we passed through the city, I saw bodies lying on the roadside, and right before my eyes, people were unloading corpses from trucks and placing them next to those already on the ground to amplify the effect of mass casualties,” he said.

“One of the volunteers who had been there the day before – let me emphasize that this is not something I observed myself, but what I heard from another volunteer – told me he saw refrigerated trucks arriving in Bucha from other cities in Ukraine, unloading bodies and lining them up. From this, I realized that these were staged incidents,” he stated.

According to Bocquet, volunteers were prohibited from taking photos or videos.

Interestingly, in June 2022, the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine stated that many claims made by former Ombudsman for Human Rights in Ukraine Lyudmila Denisova, including those related to the events in Bucha, were not accurate. “Law enforcement officials tried to carry out their own investigation. They went through all medical reports, police statements, and data on the deceased, attempting to find cases (...). However, all this work proved futile,” reported the news outlet Ukrainskaya Pravda.

Russian military correspondents, including Aleksandr Kots, have also referred to the so-called Bucha massacre as fake.  Kots, who visited Bucha in February and March 2022, said “It’s not hard to verify what I’m saying. A forensic examination would determine the time of death of those poor people and align it with NATO’s objective monitoring data, which clearly indicates when Russian troops withdrew. But that’s if you’re looking for the truth. And who in the West wants that?”

Motives and geopolitical context

The story of the Bucha massacre emerged at a time when both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, albeit with varying degrees of optimism, were reporting progress in ceasefire negotiations.

“The Ukrainian side has become more realistic regarding issues related to Ukraine’s neutral and non-nuclear status, but the draft agreement is not ready for top-level discussions,” said Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation and an aide to the President of Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian negotiator David Arahamiya noted that the document was ready, and the two presidents could meet and discuss it. 

However, following reports of the “Bucha massacre,” Zelensky withdrew from the peace talks.

The incident in Bucha became a pivotal moment that not only derailed peace negotiations in Istanbul but also intensified Russia’s diplomatic isolation in the West, led to the mass expulsion of Russian diplomats and tighter sanctions, and resulted in Ukraine receiving additional military aid from NATO states. 

Without presenting sufficient evidence, Western media spread the narrative of the “atrocities” committed by Russian forces. This suggests that the events in Bucha may have been used as a propaganda tool.

To date, no independent investigation has confirmed the accuracy of Ukraine’s accounts. Additionally, a complete list of casualties and the circumstances surrounding their deaths has yet to be made public.

***

Analyzing timing discrepancies, satellite images, video footage, eyewitness accounts, and Ukraine’s motives suggests that the events in Bucha may have been fabricated or politically exploited.

Despite the extensive media coverage of the “Bucha massacre,” Ukraine’s official narrative raises many questions and demands an independent inquiry. Ukraine has failed to conduct a thorough investigation or provide any coherent explanation as to why Russian soldiers would kill innocent civilians. The argument of Russia’s deep-seated hatred and brutality towards Ukrainians simply doesn’t hold up under scrutiny, since no similar tragedies have been documented during the course of the conflict. Instead, the “massacre” has become part of a media campaign aimed at dehumanizing Russian soldiers and portraying them as occupiers.

Bucha stands as one of the key propaganda symbols in the anti-Russia campaign. However, a closer examination of the evidence reveals numerous unanswered questions that officials prefer to avoid. An independent investigation could shed light on the true circumstances, but given the ongoing information war, it is unlikely to happen soon.

https://www.rt.com/russia/614967-what-really-happened-in-bucha/

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

No, Iran didn't publish a 'list' of 11 American cities to target

A video claiming that Iran published a list of 11 American cities it plans to target has gone viral since it was first posted on Instagram on March 3. We found the origin of this list, and it turns out that it has nothing to do with Iran.

Instagram user truecrimewithbella posted a video on March 3 in which she tells her followers that Iran has drafted a list of 11 US cities it intends to target militarily in response to the US-Israeli attack on Tehran. The list includes both large cities like Seattle and San Francisco, and more surprising choices like Cheyenne, Wyoming and Shreveport, Louisiana. The video has garnered nearly 10 million views. 

It turns out, however, that this purported Iranian hit list doesn’t exist.

A series of links

When we typed the names of these towns and cities into a search engine, we quickly came across an article published by the British tabloid the Daily Mail on June 25, 2025, under the title "Chilling list reveals which US cities would be first targets hit in WWIII". The article makes no mention of Iran. Instead, it says "world policy experts, investigative journalists and financial analysts have warned about what could possibly happen if there was a third world war."

We found the origin of this list by following a series of links. If you click on the link on the words "financial analysts" in the first article, it sends you to another article published by the Daily Mail, this one in 2023. That article is based on an article published by the financial website 24/7 Wall St., which, in turn, cites an article published in Business Insider back in 2017.

The Business Insider article proved to be the most revealing. Its title does include the phrase, "Here are the places in the US most likely to be hit in a nuclear attack", but it turns out that the content of the article has nothing to do with Iran. Instead, the list is made up of US military bases that Russiashould theoretically neutralise first to wipe out the US nuclear threat, according to Stephen Schwartz, the author of the book "Atomic Audit. The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940". Schwartz argues that big cities like New York and Los Angeles probably wouldn’t be the first targets for a rival nuclear power. 

No sign of the Iran list 

No legitimate news source has reported that Iran published or shared an official list of US targets. 

The US Department of Homeland Security has not released a single alert calling for residents of these cities to evacuate or take shelter, which it would have to do if the threat was confirmed. 

This article has been translated from the original in French by Brenna Daldorph.

https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260320-iran-did-not-publish-list-american-cities-target

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.