Western Analysts Continue to Push Delusions About Russia

by Larry C. Johnson

I want to flag another article that reflects a profound misunderstanding of Russia and the war in Ukraine… It is from a pundit by the name of Kamran Bokhari.

Although Bokhari appears to be a young guy who was not an adult during the cold war, he is trapped in the old style of thinking about Russia and US relations. He writes:

Trump must act decisively to show that he controls the rules of the engagement and to counter the perception that Moscow is exploiting his desire for diplomacy. Washington’s move on Wednesday to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil companies, is evidence of the administration’s sensitivity to charges of weakness….

Certainly, the war in Ukraine has shown that Russia falls well short of the military and industrial might that the Soviets possessed. After nearly four years of fighting, Moscow’s failures underscore the erosion of its conventional power and the limits of its mobilization capacity. Russia will need years to rebuild its economic base, replenish its arsenal and restore force readiness, diminishing its ability to threaten Europe in the near term. In the meantime, Russia will try to gain as much territory in eastern Ukraine as possible as it waits for Washington to continue its withdrawal from the global stage, after which it will exploit strategic opportunities in Europe as they emerge.

This strategy has a couple of problems that Moscow is all too aware of. First and more immediately, the continued rejection of Trump’s diplomatic overtures risks escalation. The US could respond by supplying additional military aid to Ukraine that could lead to real battlefield reversals. The Kremlin, for its part, recognizes how Trump’s political imperatives will influence his willingness to act decisively. As a result, there are limits to how far Russia can delay or continue to manipulate negotiations without incurring costs.

First a comment about the latest sanctions the US Department of the Treasury, through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), imposed on Russia’s two largest oil companies: Rosneft and Lukoil. These sanctions come under Executive Order 14024 and are ostensibly part of a broader effort to weaken the Kremlin’s war machine by cutting off key sources of revenue from the energy sector amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. 

To be specific, the sanctions are supposed to block Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as many of their subsidiaries and any entities they own 50 percent or more, directly or indirectly, from accessing the US financial system and prohibits US persons from dealing with them. Only one tiny problem… Rosneft and Lukoil are doing business outside of the US financial system. These sanctions will have no substantive effect on either company. This is simply window dressing from Donald Trump to convince the anti-Russian Americans that he is trying to play hardball with Moscow. The clowns in Washington do not understand that Russia’s economy is not dependent on oil exports… And that is according to Mr. Alexander Galushka, the Deputy Secretary of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.

Second, Bokhari continues to repeat the false Western memes that Russia’s military operation is a failure, that the Russian economy is collapsing and that its stocks of military supplies are depleted. Russia continues to recruit and expand its army, which now has more than 1.5 million soldiers. The cooling of the Russian economy this year is a direct result of the action by Russia’s Central Bank to cool inflation… Last year’s boost in interest rates has achieved the desired result and inflation in Russia is now in single-digits. And Bokhari’s claim that, “Russia will need years to rebuild its economic base, replenish its arsenal and restore force readiness,” is complete nonsense. Russia’s massive industrial base is operating on all cylinders, churning out artillery shells, artillery barrels, drones, tanks, armored personnel carriers and hypersonic missiles. It is NATO, not Russia, that is depleted and facing an uphill challenge in trying to revive a ransacked industrial base. It is NATO, not Russia, that is incapable of matching Russia’s production of ammunition and weapons.

Finally, Bokhari displays his ignorance of military capabilities, especially with respect to the United States. He asserts, “The US could respond by supplying additional military aid to Ukraine that could lead to real battlefield reversals.” What weapons or aid would that be? The US can’t produce drones or artillery shells in quantities needed by Ukraine, but the more important deficit is Ukraine’s lack of trained military personnel. No amount of aid can fix that, especially since Russia is expanding its offensive operations all along the 1400 kilometer front, which is producing more Ukrainian casualties.

Donald Trump wrongly believes that he can pressure Russia and compel it to halt its military campaign to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. The Russians are not going to stop until those objectives are achieved… Whether by force or diplomacy.

https://sonar21.com/western-analysts-continue-to-push-delusions-about-russia/

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ticym1Y0bMw

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCnRKqguAYk&t=3s

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Around 10,000 Ukrainian troops have been encircled by Russian forces in the Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk areas, President Vladimir Putin was told on Sunday during a visit to a Russian Army command post.

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin held a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and senior military commanders, during which he was briefed on the situation along the line of contact.

“It was noted that up to 5,000 Ukrainian troops are encircled in the Kupyansk direction and around 5,500 in the Krasnoarmeysk direction,” Peskov said.

Kupyansk is a city in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, around 100km east of Kharkov. Krasnoarmeysk is located in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, currently occupied by Ukrainian troops.

The military reported that Russian forces also captured a crossing over the Oskol River, cutting off the movement of Ukrainian troops. They are currently completing the liberation of Yampol, while nearby Volchansk is said to be 70% liberated. 

A total of 31 Ukrainian battalions have been encircled in the Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov areas. According to Peskov, Putin congratulated the troops on their success in Kupyansk and the achievements of combat missions in other areas.

During the meeting, Putin ordered measures to ensure the surrender of the encircled Ukrainian troops and to minimize casualties. He noted that the Russian Army has always shown mercy toward its enemies and stressed that this must continue.

The president also urged the commanders to “do everything” in their power to ensure the safety of the civilian population in the encircled areas, who he said Ukrainian forces are using as human shields.

Putin also urged the army to continue the military operation “in accordance with the plan developed by the General Staff,” stressing that the safety of Russian service members must remain the top priority.

https://www.rt.com/russia/626970-putin-visited-command-post-of-russian-forces/

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVRD10FfNaM

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaPdoLYrC2I

Russian President Vladimir Putin, dressed in military camouflage, announced the successful test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile during a high-level briefing at a military command post. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported that the weapon, known to NATO as SSC-X-9 Skyfall, flew continuously for 15 hours covering 14,000 kilometers on October 21, performing complex evasive maneuvers designed to bypass air defense systems.

Putin described the test as a breakthrough moment, declaring the system ready to move toward final deployment and calling it invincible against current defense technologies. The nuclear propulsion system theoretically provides unlimited range, fundamentally challenging NATO's missile defense architecture.

During the same briefing, Russian commanders reported battlefield advances in Ukraine, claiming encirclement of 49 Ukrainian battalions near Krasnoarmeysk and Kupyansk. Putin instructed forces to minimize casualties and ensure humane treatment of prisoners under international law. Western defense analysts warn the development, if confirmed, represents a seismic shift in global nuclear deterrence strategy.

Russia and NATO Contained War Myth /Lt Col Daniel Davis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E18mt1S-6RI

Danny argues that Ukraine is increasingly resource-strained and overmatched by Russia’s far greater capacity for missile and drone production. Despite Ukrainian ingenuity—using drones to fight drones and conserving Patriot missiles—the math of both weapons and manpower no longer works in Ukraine’s favor. Russia can launch hundreds of aerial attacks nightly, while Ukraine can only respond with a few, achieving little strategic effect.

They note that many key Russian military and industrial sites are located deep within the country, beyond Ukraine’s reach even with long-range Western weapons. Thus, Ukraine’s strikes cause disruption but not decisive damage.

The speaker criticizes Western leaders for escalating the conflict while claiming they want peace, saying Russia has always been “at the table” diplomatically but refuses to surrender on Western terms. They warn that some in the West seem to want escalation—possibly even a wider war—under the illusion it could stay conventional and “contained.”

The humanitarian toll is highlighted: for every Russian soldier’s body returned, roughly 35–45 Ukrainians are reportedly exchanged, showing catastrophic Ukrainian losses. Yet Western analysts insist Russia’s advance is “slow,” a contradiction the speaker mocks as detached from battlefield reality.

They also fault Western governments for failing to respond decisively to recent attacks on allied oil infrastructure, arguing this inaction erodes unity and benefits Russia.

The commentary turns philosophical near the end—comparing today’s drift toward escalation to the diplomatic missteps that caused World War I. Then, poor communications led to unintended war; today, instant communication exists, but leaders lack the capacity to process reality. Western officials, the speaker concludes, are deluding themselves into thinking they can “create their own reality” by force—risking an even greater global catastrophe.

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.