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the US mess in the pacific is worse than the plastic vortex....
In Asian media this week: Trump says he spoke to Modi but India denies call took place. Plus: Japan’s new coalition a shift to the right; Timor Leste finally gets seat at regional table; Life worse than death on Myanmar scam farm; Prabowo – control, populism and diminished accountability; Sri Lanka suffers from world’s worst plastics spill. Modi cancels ASEAN trip, avoids meeting Trump – Asian Media Report
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has cancelled a trip to the imminent ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, avoiding any possibility of a meeting with Donald Trump. The Hindu newspaper reported Modi was expected to attend the summit, being held from 26 to 28 October, along with Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The summit presented an opportunity to meet all his counterparts from the Quad nations — the US, Japan and Australia — as well as key leaders from the BRICS countries, the paper said. But the Financial Express later reported that Modi would skip the summit, in person, and would only take part virtually, meaning he would not meet Trump. Modi had called Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and said he could not attend in person because the event coincided with Diwali (the Hindu festival of lights). Anwar posted on Facebook: “He informed me he will be attending virtually.” Relations between India and the US have been strained since Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports to America as punishment for India’s purchase of Russian oil. Asian media outlets reported in late August that Modi was refusing to take calls from Trump. Modi’s withdrawal from personal attendance at the summit followed a statement by Trump that India would reduce Russian oil imports to almost nothing by the end of the year. The Statesman newspaper said he cited an assurance from Modi. “India told me they would stop,” Trump said. “It’s a process; you can’t just stop it. But by the end of the year, they will be down to almost nothing. “India has been great. Spoke to Prime Minister Modi yesterday and they have been absolutely great.” But India’s Ministry of External Affairs said there has been no phone call between Modi and Trump the previous day. A spokesman said the two leaders had spoken on 9 October, and Modi had congratulated Trump on the Gaza peace plan. “On the question of whether there was a conversation or a telephone call between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump, I am not aware of any conversation yesterday,” the spokesman said. The Hindu later said the Indian delegation to the ASEAN summit would be led by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The ministry did not give any reason for cancellation of Modi’s trip, the paper said. Takaichi to tell Trump of higher defence spending Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s new prime minister this week, after forging a fresh ruling coalition. Her Liberal Democratic Party linked with the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin), after Komeito, its partner for 26 years, ended the old alliance. A commentary in Nikkei Asia, the politics and business news service, said the new coalition represented an ideological shift to the right. Komeito, it said, was a politically moderating force within the old coalition. Japan Innovation replaced Komeito’s pacifist restraint with an emphasis on defence and readiness. Takaichi said this week the LDP and Japan Innovation shared many common views and were essentially heading in the same direction. Takaichi was elected prime minister on Tuesday in an extraordinary session of the Diet (parliament). She won 237 out of 465 Lower House votes, but needed to win a run-off vote in the Upper House. The Asahi Shimbun said the alliance with the Japan Innovation Party essentially cemented her victory. The paper said in a separate story the new coalition had a distinctly stronger conservative stance than the previous one. Takaichi will host a summit with Donald Trump on 28 October and would signal a commitment to raising Japan’s defence budget to 2% and beyond – music to Trump’s ears. The government would pledge to scrap a restriction on arms exports that limits them to such uses as rescue and transportation. The LDP’s coalition agreement with the Japan Innovation Party calls for promoting the introduction of submarines powered by “next generation propulsion systems” – such as nuclear technology. The submarines would be equipped with vertical launching system that would provide counter-strike capabilities. A sombre front-page commentary in The Asahi Shimbun said Takaichi presented herself as “onken hoshu” – a moderate conservative. But the new coalition agreement seemed to point in quite the opposite direction. “I can’t help but wonder,” the writer said, “if [the] path keeps turning right and right, will it eventually lead the nation back to a place where we’ve been before? “Let’s hope such fears prove unfounded.” Anwar, Trump to witness Thai-Cambodia accord Timor Leste will finally be admitted to ASEAN on 26 October, 14 years after applying and 23 years after winning independence from Indonesia. Bangkok Post said the youngest Asian nation has waited longer to gain ASEAN’s acceptance than any previous applicant. “President Jose Ramos-Horta… often joked that joining ASEAN was more difficult than going to heaven,” the story said. An analytical piece in the Post said that joining ASEAN was about survival, legitimacy and opportunity. The op-ed, written by Ronny P. Sasmita, a senior analyst at the Indonesia Strategic and Economics Action Institution, said membership was a necessity for Timor Leste. “Membership in ASEAN offers… a platform,” the commentary said. “It gives Dili a seat at the table where regional rules are written and a buffer against great power rivalry.” Timor Leste will join the regional bloc at the 47th ASEAN Summit, to be held in Kuala Lumpur. Nikkei Asia reported that Donald Trump had confirmed he would attend, as part of an Asian trip that would include South Korea and Japan. Pressing issues to be discussed at the summit included trade and tariffs, the digital economy, China’s military spending and a peace accord between Thailand and Cambodia. The US is now the southeast Asian region’s most important export destination, the report said. The bloc’s exports to the US last year were worth US$312 billion (about A$480 billion), while exports to China were about US$291 billion (A$447 billion). “The growth of exports to the US means the impact of [Trump’s] new tariffs is significant,” Nikkei said. A prime motivation for Trump’s attendance was peacemaking connected with the violent border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Trump was keen to witness the signing of an accord between the two neighbours. After three months of catastrophic relations, the two countries are trying to turn confrontation into co-operation, said a Bangkok Post op-ed written by regional affairs expert Kavi Chongkittavorn. The two sides have been meeting in Kuala Lumpur to draft a document that both sides could comply with. The ASEAN chair, Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim, and Trump would witness the signing ceremony. “It is imperative that Thailand and Cambodia break the current cycle of anger and blame, especially nationalistic outrage,” Kavi wrote. Scam farm slaves tell of torture-chamber punishments It sounds like a scene from a movie about medieval times. A Hong Kong woman, known only as “Nancy”, was hung up by her hands in a dark room, with her feet barely touching the floor. Nancy was being punished for failing to meet targets set for her by her captors in a Myanmar scam farm. Nancy’s story is told in an article in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post. “I was living a life worse than death,” she said. Nancy had been hoping to make easy money when a supposed friend referred her for a job in Thailand. But she just passed through Thailand and was taken across the border into Myanmar, to a scam farm where she was forced to swindle people, mainly rich Americans, through ploys including get-rich-quick schemes and fake romances. The article also tells the story of a man known as “Eric”, who fell for an advertisement offering quick cash in Thailand. They said that to match US time zones, their working day was from 10pm until 7am but could stretch to 18 hours if they failed to meet their scam targets. Nancy said she faced a constant battle between her conscience and her need for survival. “One of my targets, a photographer, told me he had been scammed twice,” she said. “I still needed to pretend to be sincere and nice and scam him again.” Nancy told of a man who had one of his legs broken and who had lost the limb but was still forced to work. “As long as you have hands, you have to work,” she said. Other punishments included whipping, electric shocks and being locked in a room with a black bear for a night, the story said. Eric said: “A man had his skin burnt until he lost consciousness. He was then woken up by having water poured on him.” Eric was released from the scam farm after his family paid a ransom of more than HK$200,000 (about A$40,000). But he still had to get to Thailand, enduring a two-day trek, crossing rivers on foot during torrential downpours, and walking through the night, relying on instinct to survive. The story said Nancy’s means of escape could not be disclosed, to protect her identity. Prabowo’s rapid centralisation of power Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto this week marked a year in office. The assessment by Asian media of his record so far was less than enthusiastic. His first year was defined by strong control, populist ambition and diminishing accountability, said a commentary in Singapore’s The Straits Times. Prabowo had delivered stability on the political front by uniting diverse groups and had launched populist programmes that helped common folk but at a steep cost. Nikkei Asia said Prabowo had four top priorities: the free meal program for children and expectant mothers; the Danantara sovereign wealth fund; defence spending, including modernising the country’s ageing weaponry and equipment; and international relations (he has made 35 official visits to 25 countries). The rupiah fell to a low point against the dollar after Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs. And violent protests had led to 10 deaths. Economic hardship and inequality were key factors driving the protests. In a conversation with journalists in April, Prabowo gave himself a modest six out of 10 grading, an article in The Diplomat, the Asian online news magazine, said. It was not the nine out of 10 he had been aiming for. “After a year in office, with the economy stuttering and August seeing Indonesia’s worst riots since 1998, one wonders what score he would give himself now,” the commentary said. Two features of the Prabowo presidency stood out, the article, by journalist Joseph Rachman, said. The first was the rapid centralisation of power in the hands of the president; the second was a chaotic approach to governance. An analytical piece in The Jakarta Post said Prabowo had built a ruling coalition that included all but one of the political parties in the House of Representatives, giving him 80% of the seats. The op-ed, by political reporter Yerica Lai, said that had led to his forming the largest cabinet in decades, with 100 cabinet posts going to coalition partners, election campaigners, financial backers and figures from the military and the police. An editorial in the Post said it was still soon to decide if Prabowo was a success or a dud. But it said: “If hiccups, setbacks and public discontent in the past year can be any indication, we know that there is still much to be desired from how the Prabowo administration governs.” Billions of plastic pellets pollute coastal villages Cleaning the beaches near a small village in western Sri Lanka has been a daily task over the past four years for about 30 local women. Using metal sieves, they scour the sand to collect plastic pellets the size of lentils. They are paid A$20 a day for their hot, back-breaking work. The pellets, called nurdles, are used to make plastic products and are transported in bulk. They take hundreds of years to break down. In May 2021, a cargo ship called X-Press Pearl caught fire and sank near the coastal village of Sarakkuwa. An essay in The Diplomat says the ship released 1680 tonnes of nurdles, along with 9700 tonnes of polymer resins and other hazardous substances. In the weeks that followed, billions of nurdles washed ashore. A UN report rated it as the largest plastic spill ever recorded, involving up to 75 billion nurdles. A massive clean-up by 19,000 workers was launched to tackle the spill. “Once released into the sea, nurdles rapidly disperse across wide areas, driven by currents, waves and wind, making containment close to impossible,” says the essay, written by photojournalist Nicholas Muller. Now the region has another massive nurdle problem. In May, a ship called MSC Elsa 3 sank off the coast of Kerala, in southwest India. The ship spilled millions of plastic pellets over a wide area of India’s coast and they are now showing up on Sri Lankan shores as well. The vessel carried 600 containers of hazardous materials. As in Sri Lanka, a fishing ban has been imposed, cutting off income for many families. The story cites Greenpeace as saying the Kerala Government has demanded US$1.1 billion (A$1.69 billion) in compensation, but the ship’s owners have refused to pay. In July this year, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ordered the owners of the X-Press Pearl to pay US$1 billion (A$ 1.53 billion), with a US$250 million payment due in September. The story says the company has refused to pay.
YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.
Gus Leonisky POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.
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double standards....
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has highlighted Western double standards in granting exemptions to sanctions on Russian oil companies while expecting India to stop its purchases.
Speaking on a panel at the Berlin Global Dialogue conference on Friday, Goyal responded to an attempt by his British counterpart, Chris Bryant, to justify UK exemptions for Rosneft despite calls for India to cease trading with Russia.
“I read a report that Germany has reached out to the US for seeking exemption [for a Rosneft subsidiary]. The UK already has an exemption for procuring oil,” Goyal said.
Bryant, who was sitting to Goyal’s left, interjected that the issue was relevant only to a “particular” subsidiary.
However, Goyal retorted that India also has a Rosneft refinery in India and wondered why New Delhi was being singled out.
He was referring to Nayara Energy, which is partly-owned by the Russian oil major. It was included in the 18th package of sanctions adopted by the EU in July, as well as in new UK sanctions imposed on October 15. Nayara, one of India’s largest refineries, supplies its petroleum products globally, including to Europe.
The company, along with another Indian oil giant, Reliance, are expected to see major disruptions after the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil, earlier this week.
Berlin sought an exemption from sanctions for Rosneft’s German business, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources. The business, which includes stakes in several refineries, was put under German government trusteeship in 2022.
READ MORE: EU targets Indian firms in latest Russia sanctionsMeanwhile, just a week after imposing sanctions on Rosneft, the UK issued a special license allowing operations with two German subsidiaries of the Russian oil company, given that they are under German state control.
The Indian commerce minister stated that New Delhi, which is currently in talks with the EU and the US over a trade deal, will not be pressured into concluding those deals if it isn’t in the country’s national interests. “We don’t do deals in a hurry, and we don’t do deals with deadlines or with a gun on our head,”he said. He added that India’s approach to trade negotiations is guided by long-term thinking rather than short-term pressure.
https://www.rt.com/india/626922-watch-indian-commerce-minister-expose/
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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.
Gus Leonisky
POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.
sanctions....
This is India’s strategy in the face of Trump’s Russia sanctions
New Delhi signals quiet defiance of US attempts to dictate its oil and trade policies.
By Shastri Ramachandaran
It is just as well that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to skip going to the two-day East Asian leaders’ summit in Kuala Lumpur from October 26 to 28. Modi settling for virtual attendance at the ASEAN summit is being seen as his way of averting a face-to-face bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump.
As speculated, had an in-person meeting between the two happened, Trump’s two-faced pressure on India to halt import of Russian oil would have become three-faced.
In his current tactics of harm-and-charm, on the one hand, Trump publicly warns India against importing oil from Russia and threatens even higher tariffs; on the other hand, he tweets flattering messages to Modi saying he’s a good friend and great leader and telephones to greet him on occasions such as his birthday and the Diwali festival.
Modi plays along when it comes to Trump’s messages and calls to charm him. Modi’s verbal response may be effusive, but his actions show that he does not expect these pleasantries to make the US retreat from inflicting harm on India by way of tariffs. The only way the latter can happen is if Modi refuses to buckle under Trump’s pressure as he appears to be doing, by not meeting Trump in-person.
The official reason advanced for Modi staying away from this important forum is Deepavali (or Diwali) festivities. However, there are few takers for this explanation. Observers point out that Modi had also kept away from the summit on Gaza in Egypt, evidently to avoid being cornered by Trump. He has deputed External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to represent India at the East Asia Summit whereas he sent a junior minister to Egypt.
Modi is said to be miffed with Trump for claiming more than 50 times in recent months that he had mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a short but fierce military standoff between the two Asian neighbors in May this year. This has been repeatedly denied by New Delhi. Worse, Trump has claimed at least five times that Modi assured him of stopping oil purchases from Russia.
Trump’s assertions of Modi’s promise on this move, under threat of raising tariffs further, has been followed by sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil. This year, at least 34% of India’s crude requirement has been imported from Moscow and these two Russian oil giants account for 60% of the supplies. In addition to the reciprocal tariff of 25% already in place since July 30, the US slapped another 25% secondary tariff on India for buying Russian oil.
The sanctions will force Reliance Industries, India’s biggest buyer of Russian oil, to reduce imports; and public sector oil companies such as Indian Oil may be ‘advised’ to follow suit though they have no direct arrangements with Rosneft and Lukoil. For now, they may continue buying from intermediaries. Another company to suffer a body blow from the US sanctions is Nayara Energy, one of India’s largest refineries, in which Rosneft holds a 49.13% ownership share.
The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil mean that any entity, US or foreign, dealing with these companies runs the risk of massive penalties. Reports are that Reliance Industries, which is estimated to have purchased $35 million worth of oil since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in 2022, will have to start reducing imports gradually and possibly stop all imports from Russia by November 21. In its statement on Friday, the company said it is reviewing the impact of Western sanctions on its Russian suppliers and will adjust operations accordingly while maintaining domestic energy security.
Reliance will be hit very hard although a large proportion of the crude, imported at discounted prices and refined by it (into petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel) was exported to the US and Europe at good profit. The company, which has a 25-year agreement with Rosneft to buy 25 million tons of crude per year, is reported to have imported nearly 50% of the 1.8 million barrels supplied daily to India. The absence of discounted crude from Russia could mean a loss of $5 to $6 billion per year, according to a former foreign secretary. Trump had described the move as a “gradual process” and said India would bring Russian oil imports “down to almost nothing” by year-end.
Reports are that in the wake of US-imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, China’s big state-owned oil companies are suspending purchases of “seaborne Russian oil”.
Trump’s attempts to squeeze India and China in a big way to gradually reduce and end oil imports from Russia is to beat Moscow into submission and make it comply with his diktat for a deal with Ukraine. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to yield any ground under mounting pressure from the US, and Europe. Putin made it clear this week that “no self-respecting country and no self-respecting people ever decide anything under pressure.”
Such a position should hold good for India as well. However, New Delhi does not have the economic and military heft of China and Russia to withstand US pressures beyond a certain point. Putin slammed sanctions on the big two Russian oil companies as an “unfriendly act” and admitted that it “will have some consequences.” But, he said, “they won’t greatly affect our economic stability.” The same cannot be said about the impact of sanctions on the Indian economy.
New Delhi has pointed out more than once that energy security is critical and India’s imports from Russia are dictated by its national interest in ensuring stable prices and secure energy supplies. The government called Trump’s tariffs as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.” The friction caused by tariffs has stalled progress on a trade agreement between India and the US although talks continue at various levels.
Some of these conversations seem to be pulling India deeper into a situation where New Delhi may find it hard to push back against the tremendous pressure being exerted by the US. This is evident, first and foremost, in India agreeing to cut Russian oil imports, although there is no official word of this being done to comply with Trump’s demand; and asking public sector oil companies to source more crude from the US. Second, India has reportedly agreed to open its agriculture sector to US produce, which the government had been unwilling to do as higher farm imports could hurt India’s farmers.
These developments relating to the two critical sectors of energy and agriculture are being attributed to the recent visit of Trump’s new special envoy Sergio Gor to India. Gor’s visit appears to have melted New Delhi’s resistance to stay the course with Russian oil imports and not open the agriculture sector to US produce. Gor was in India for five days from October 10 to 15. On October 11, he met with Modi, Jaishankar, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Rare is the diplomat who has scored such high-level intensive discussions with four top figures in government in a single day. In fact, ambassadors have to wait weeks, if not months at times, to present their credentials after being posted to Delhi.
Whereas Gor, as of now, is ambassador-designate to India and scheduled to assume office only in the New Year. He has a larger role as Trump’s Special Envoy for South and Central Asia and that mandates him to engage with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and the Central Asian states.
READ MORE: The roots of India-Russia friendship go deeper than you thinkGor is not a career diplomat. He served as Trump’s campaign strategist. His appointment, the royal reception he received in New Delhi and the upbeat mood with gung-ho remarks by both sides show that Trump means business when he wants India to abide by his terms whether on energy or agriculture. It might be a case of diplomacy leveraging transactional deals for an India-US geopolitical alignment with implications for regional security. Gor’s meeting with India’s commerce secretary suggests that, after scoring on energy and agriculture, his next target may be to wrap up a bilateral trade deal in November.
Washington is gradually and inexorably lowering the boom on Russia, India, and China. This could have unforeseen effects on India’s foreign policy, its relationship with Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, and its role in multilateral forums such as SCO and BRICS besides a troubled neighborhood where the US is a major player. That is, if Trump continues to call the shots.
https://www.rt.com/india/626952-trump-india-sanctions-rosneft/
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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.
Gus Leonisky
POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.